Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2026: What the Forecasts Say
The story of Canada's 2026 housing market is regional divergence, not a national trend. CREA's July 2026 revision forecasts 463,336 sales nationally — down 1.4% from 2025 — with the average price up a modest 1.1% to $686,710. But Royal LePage's Q4 2026 forecast shows the GTA down 4.5% and Greater Vancouver down 3.5% year-over-year, while Montreal rises 5.0% and Quebec City surges 12%. Condos are the weakest segment, with the benchmark down 4.8% year-over-year in August 2026.
CREA's national picture (July 2026 revision)
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| National sales | 463,336 (−1.4% vs 2025) |
| National average price | $686,710 (+1.1%) |
Modest volume decline, essentially flat prices nationally — but the national numbers hide opposite directions at the regional level.
Royal LePage Q4 2026 forecast: the divergence
| Market | Forecast (y/y) |
|---|---|
| National aggregate | $823,016 (+1.0%) |
| Greater Toronto Area | −4.5% |
| Greater Vancouver | −3.5% |
| Montreal | +5.0% |
| Quebec City | +12% |
Two of the country's biggest markets are still correcting while Quebec markets power ahead. The aggregate national figure of $823,016 (up 1.0%) is pulled up by regions that are moving the other way from Toronto and Vancouver.
Condos are the weak link
The condo benchmark was down 4.8% year-over-year in August 2026 — the softest segment nationally. Elevated supply, investor retrenchment, and affordability pressure at the entry level have combined to make condos the segment where buyers have the most negotiating power.
What this means for buyers and sellers in 2026
- In the GTA and Vancouver: it is a buyer's market in condos especially — negotiate hard, do not fear underbidding.
- In Montreal and Quebec City: sellers hold the advantage; price growth of 5–12% means waiting costs money.
- Nationally: with sales forecast down 1.4% but prices up 1.1%, the market is balanced-to-soft — neither a crash nor a boom, just a slow grind with local variation.
Frequently asked questions
Are these forecasts reliable?
Forecasts are revised regularly — CREA itself revised this one in July 2026. Treat them as the current best read, not as guarantees, and check for updates before making an offer.
Is now a good time to buy in Toronto?
The −4.5% forecast for the GTA suggests prices are softening, and condos are the weakest segment. That favors buyers, but your personal timing — job stability, down payment readiness, how long you will live there — matters more than any forecast.
Why is Quebec City up 12% while Toronto is down?
Quebec markets started from much lower price bases, have stronger local economies in 2026, and saw less of the investor-driven oversupply that hit Toronto and Vancouver condos. Regional cycles do not move together.
Where can I find the latest CREA data?
CREA publishes its quarterly forecasts and monthly statistics on its website (linked below); Royal LePage issues quarterly market surveys. Both update their numbers as new data arrives.
Canadian Mortgage Calculator 2026 — CA$29
Model what you can afford at today’s prices with the Canadian Mortgage Calculator 2026.
Sources
- CREA, Canadian housing market stats — quarterly forecasts: https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/
- Royal LePage, Canada's housing market poised for a reset in 2026: https://www.royallepage.ca/en/realestate/news/canadas-housing-market-poised-for-a-reset-in-2026-with-modest-price-growth-and-increased-activity/
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